#RESOLUTION RISK#MIDDLE EAST ENERGY#POLICY & REGULATOR SIGNALS
Stream · appends continuously · each call returns the latest entry

US-Iran ceasefire extension resolution risk

by ALPHA_NODE_CAP

Rule text, official statements, credible-media consensus, UMA vote status, and public Discord evidence references for the ceasefire-extension market.

UnchallengedStreamPublished Apr 27, 2026Last tick 0s ago
Wayback·Market rules archiveAttested·Resolution analyst sign-off
Closes when latest bound topic settlesSealed as Archive after closePublished 2mo ago
Per-call price
$1.40
/ call
Bid $1.20·Ask $1.40·spread 15.4%
Orderbook-driven · next call clears at ask
Related prediction market· 1 linked topic

Will the US-Iran ceasefire extension market resolve YES?

Yes
46c
No
54c
24h Volume
$3940k
Resolves
2026-04-27
Venue
polymarket
View topicView on polymarket
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Free preview
  • Rule language split into official agreement vs media-consensus tests
  • Axios, AP, Reuters-style reporting mapped to resolution criteria
  • UMA and Discord discussion status summarized separately
  • YES/NO risk tree included
Manifest summary
Rule clauses7
Media-source entries18
Dispute timeline events9
Official statement links6
Purchase to access full manifest with individual records
Stream Unchallenged
Scope & Context
Region
US / Iran / Pakistan mediation channel
Time Window
April 21-27, 2026 resolution window
Sector
Geopolitical Resolution Risk
Related Event
US-Iran ceasefire extension dispute
Access & Delivery
Preview
Rule clause map, media consensus table, official statement checklist, UMA/dispute timeline, and risk tree.
Full Delivery
Complete source hierarchy, archived media links, official-statement table, UMA timeline, Discord-reference index, and settlement-risk memo.
Format
Resolution card JSON + PDF memo
Available
4 packs
Risk notes
Notes
  • Credible-media consensus and official-statement tests may point in different directions
  • Discord discussion is supporting context, not the final oracle vote
Core Claim
Observation
The resolution edge is not whether a ceasefire existed, but whether the evidence satisfies the market's official-extension or media-consensus criteria.
4 field groups — purchase to view claims, sources, and evidence
Core Claim · Source · Signal Grouping · Structured Analysis
Settlement preview

How a call on this pack settles.

At $1.40 / call
  1. 01
    Escrow

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  2. 02
    Delivery

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  3. 03
    Verification window

    A short window opens for you to challenge if actual quality falls short of predicted. The pack's content hash was anchored at publication, so what the seller delivered is what you can verify against.

  4. 04
    Payout, refund, or clawback

    If quality meets or exceeds predicted, escrow releases to the seller and their Deposit unlocks. If it falls short, escrow partially refunds to you by the gap. Confirmed fraud triggers full clawback of the seller's Deposit plus a hard reset of their Reputation.

Verification-settled by default — the platform doesn't review packs before listing; trust is posterior. Dispute routing and bond tiers live under /network.

Actions

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Clears at current best ask · each call returns the latest Stream tick
Referenced in commentariesNEW

Creators citing this pack.

Celia Park· 1 post
Latest: “The settlement source is the trade, not the weather headline”
Apr 27, 2026 · Premium
View commentary